Florida's ferociously negative race for governor has come down to the wire. Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democratic rival Charlie Crist are locked in a dead heat.

According to a new Bay News 9/Tampa Bay Times/UF Graham Center poll, Crist has made up 6 points since late August to pull even with Scott with 40 percent support. Libertarian Adrian Wylie received 6 percent support in the state-wide poll, while undecided voters were down 2 points to 7 percent.

The numbers are not surprising, since other recent polls have shown the race being even or near even. But the new poll includes data that Dr. Chris McCarty, director of the University of Florida Survey Research Center, said could point to a Scott victory Nov. 4.

For the first time, respondents were asked who they think will win the race. A hefty majority - 48 percent to 34 - said they believe Scott will hold onto to the office.

"The reason I asked this is I saw a report from the (United Kingdom) where this has actually been a better way of predicting an outcome," McCarty said, citing the recent UK election in which Scotland voted against becoming an independent country.

Breaking the numbers down further, 74 percent of Republicans surveyed said they think Scott will win, but only 55 percent of Democrats expressed confidence Crist will prevail. Only 36 percent of independents said Scott will win.

Bay News 9 Republican political analyst Chris Ingram said he can see why the pollsters are giving weight to the numbers.

"When you start to pick that up at the water cooler or when you walk your dog down the street and talk to your neighbor ... it's a good indicator," said Ingram, a Republican. "It's not scientific, but that kind of anecdotal hunch, when measured in a survey, is a strong indicator."

Ana Cruz, Bay News 9's Democratic political analyst, admitted she was surprised by the "disparity in that number," but said Republicans "do a great job at not showing that they're scared or worried about their incumbent."

"They have an innate ability to talk about their wins and victories," she said. "Rick Scott is an incumbent governor here. Democrats need to understand at this point in the game that if they don't go to the polls, that they will not win this election."

Negative ads dominate race

The latest poll numbers again speak to an election in which most voters are apparently choosing the candidate they dislike the least.

Most surveyed said they don't trust either candidate. Only 32 percent said the phrase "honest and ethical" describes Scott (59 percent said no), while only 34 percent said yes to the same question about Crist (58 percent no). Half of the respondents said "provides leadership" describes Scott, while only 43 percent said the same about Crist.

Just 38 percent of those surveyed said Scott "understands the problems of people like me," while Crist picked up 45 percent on that question.

"These guys are both very much politicians, and people don't trust politicians, so it really shouldn't be much of a surprise that they don't have strong numbers when voters are asked in a survey about how they feel about them as being honest and ethical. Furthermore, if you were either one of these candidates, the fact the numbers are so close both on the favorable and unfavorable ... they're not concerned about it."

The distrust can easily be tied to some $72 million in mostly attack adds from both sides. Democrats repeatedly point to the Medicare fraud Scott oversaw as CEO of the Columbia/HCA health care company. Republicans have highlighted Crist's reversal of numerous positions since leaving the Republican party to first become an independent and then a Democrat.

Republicans also have run ads touting Crist's ties to President Obama, whose approval rating in Florida has fallen to 38 percent.

"I think both candidates have real strong credibility problems, and I think the polling showed this," said Graham Center Director Dr. David Colburn. "You'd have to go back, I think, Bob Martinez and the reaction to the services tax in his reelection campaign."

Martinez was Florida's governor from 1987 to 1991. Many Floridians soured on the Republican when he supported a sales tax on services, which the Florida Legislature passed and later repealed. Martinez also called on the Florida Legislature to pass pro-life laws, a move that dropped his approval rating to 24 percent.

Scott's approval rating falls

Crist fared better than Scott in approval rating, with 48 percent saying they approved of the job he did as governor from 2007 through 2010 and 41 percent saying they disapproved.

Scott's approval rating was 44 percent (49 percent disapproved), which was down a couple of points from the BN9/Times/Graham Center poll in late August.

McCarty said the negative ads are hurting Scott more than Crist, and that independent voters appear to be breaking for Crist. He suggests Crist has made some headway in debunking Scott's claim the economy is rebounding because of him.

The poll numbers seem to say so.

In the last Graham Center poll, 74 percent of those surveyed said they believed Florida's economy was recovering or will recover soon, and 71 percent said they believe the governor has a major impact on the economy. An near equal percentage of respondents expressed confidence about the economy this time, but 5 percent fewer said the governor "can do a lot about it."

"I think in the debate (last Saturday), there was a lot of discussion about the economy, and it was very much mirroring what we talked about in the last poll," McCarty said. "Scott is basically claiming credit for the recovery, as it were, and Crist deflected that and basically said he wasn't responsible. Maybe some of the independents just aren't believing the recovery is really a recovery (or) that Rick Scott is fully responsible for it."

Debates may decide it

Although many voters have already cast there ballots via mail-in voting, two televised debates between Scott and Crist remain. The first of those is set for Wednesday night at the Broward College campus in Davie, and with the race so close, anything significant could tip the scale.

Cruz said Crist "naturally has the edge" because of his "innate ability to connect with voters."

"His message of being the people's governor is working," Cruz said, pointing to Crist favoring an increase in minimum sage, which 57 percent of the poll respondents said they favor. "(Scott), in my opinion, will have to be something he's not, and that's charming, on top of taking Charlie to task on some of these issues."

But Ingram said Scott can win because he's better than the alternative.

"Among Republicans, I don't know of anyone who is super (enthused), or ever has been, about Rick Scott, but they're going to vote for him," he said. "Even if they have to pinch their nose ... it's the lesser of two evils. And within the Republican community, a lot of people really donb't like Charlie because of his turncoat issues and flip-flops and all of that stuff.

"And then Charlie, as a Democrat, he hasn't been one for that long. So there's not this real strength and groundswell. It's kind of like the old saying: His support is a mile wide and an inch deep because he hasn't been there that long."

The poll was conducted Oct. 7-12 via a telephone survey of 781 registered voters who are likely to vote in the election. It included land lines and cell phones, and results were weighted by age, party registration and media market. According to the Graham Center, it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

 

Poll Results

 

If the election for governor were being held today, for whom would you vote?

  CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
ALL 40% 40% 6% 0% 7% 2% 5%
PARTY CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Democrats 67% 14% 4% . 7% 3% 5%
Republicans 11% 72% 5% 0% 6% 2% 3%
Other 16% 25% 32% . . . 26%
Independents 47% 26% 9% . 9% 2% 7%
MEDIA MARKET CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Fort Myers 36% 50% 6% . 3% . 6%
Jacksonville 30% 49% 3% . 10% 4% 4%
Miami 57% 25% 6% . 6% 2% 6%
Orlando 34% 44% 9% . 9% 2% 3%
Other 34% 47% 4% . 9% 3% 4%
Pensacola 26% 58% . . 3% 6% 6%
Tampa Bay 42% 38% 6% 0% 6% 2% 4%
West Palm Beach 42% 37% 5% . 7% 2% 8%
RACE CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Other 52% 27% 5% . 7% . 10%
Black 80% 2% 2% . 10% 1% 5%
White 34% 46% 6% 0% 7% 2% 4%
HISPANIC CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
No 40% 41% 6% 0% 6% 2% 4%
Yes 42% 37% 5% . 9% 1% 6%
Don't Know 32% 12% . . 34% . 22%
Refused Answer 59% 16% . . 13% . 12%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
South 46% 35% 6% 0% 6% 1% 5%
North 33% 47% 5% . 9% 3% 4%
Don't Know/Refused 23% 54% . . . 23% .
AGE GROUP CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
18–24 31% 42% 9% . 5% 6% 6%
25–34 48% 26% 8% . 10% 3% 6%
35–44 47% 38% 4% 1% 5% . 6%
45–59 42% 37% 5% . 11% 1% 4%
60+ 37% 45% 6% . 5% 3% 4%
AGE GROUP II CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
18–60 43% 36% 5% 0% 9% 2% 6%
61+ 37% 45% 6% . 5% 3% 4%
SEX CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Female 41% 37% 4% . 10% 2% 5%
Male 40% 43% 7% 0% 4% 2% 4%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
> $150,000 40% 47% 2% 2% 8% 2% .
$100,000 – $150,000 50% 35% 4% . 9% . 3%
$60,000 – $100,000 41% 45% 5% . 5% 2% 2%
$40,000 – $60,000 47% 38% 5% . 4% 2% 4%
$20,000 – $40,000 41% 42% 6% . 6% 1% 5%
< $20,000 51% 23% 10% . 8% 5% 4%
Don't Know 38% 44% . . 8% 6% 5%
Refused Answer 24% 41% 9% . 10% 4% 12%
RELIGION CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Other 42% 41% 5% . 3% . 8%
No Affiliation 49% 23% 9% . 11% 4% 4%
Muslim 100% . . . . . .
Jewish 61% 17% . 3% 7% 12% .
Mormon . 100% . . . . .
Catholic 37% 44% 6% . 8% 0% 6%
Protestant 36% 50% 5% . 6% 2% 2%
Don't Know 100% . . . . . .
Refused Answer 36% 19% 7% . 6% . 31%
VOTING METHOD CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 45% 35% 6% . 9% 2% 4%
Absentee Ballot 43% 38% 7% . 4% 3% 5%
Early Voting 45% 32% 5% 1% 11% . 6%
On Election Day 36% 45% 5% . 7% 2% 4%
Not Planning to Vote . . 100% . . . .
Don't Know 34% 18% 18% . . . 30%
Refused Answer 38% 62% . . . . .

 

How much enthusiasm do you have about voting for this candidate?

(Asked only of those who would vote for Scott, Crist or Wyllie.)

  NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
ALL 3% 13% 32% 20% 31% 1% 0%
PARTY NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
Democrats 4% 12% 30% 21% 31% 0% .
Republicans 2% 13% 31% 21% 32% 1% 1%
Other . . 22% . 78% . .
Independents 4% 14% 40% 16% 25% . 1%
MEDIA MARKET NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
Fort Myers . 12% 24% 21% 39% 3% .
Jacksonville 3% 6% 32% 26% 32% . .
Miami 3% 14% 32% 20% 30% 1% .
Orlando 4% 10% 35% 18% 32% 1% 1%
Other 2% 9% 34% 23% 32% . .
Pensacola . 15% 42% 23% 19% . .
Tampa Bay 6% 15% 28% 20% 31% . 1%
West Palm Beach 2% 18% 36% 20% 24% . .
RACE NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
Other 4% 15% 29% 13% 36% 2% .
Black 7% 4% 24% 21% 43% . .
White 3% 14% 33% 21% 28% 0% 0%
HISPANIC NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
No 3% 12% 33% 20% 31% 1% 0%
Yes 3% 19% 26% 26% 26% . .
Don't Know 36% . 28% . 36% . .
Refused Answer 10% 11% 10% . 68% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
South 4% 15% 30% 20% 31% 1% 0%
North 3% 10% 35% 21% 31% 0% 0%
Don't Know/Refused . . 41% 30% 30% . .
AGE GROUP NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
18–24 . 7% 44% 19% 23% 5% 3%
25–34 10% 20% 28% 15% 28% . .
35–44 3% 18% 31% 23% 25% . 1%
45–59 2% 13% 35% 19% 33% . .
60+ 3% 10% 30% 22% 33% 1% 0%
AGE GROUP II NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
18–60 4% 15% 33% 19% 29% 0% 0%
61+ 3% 11% 31% 21% 33% 1% 0%
SEX NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
Female 3% 13% 31% 22% 31% . 0%
Male 3% 13% 33% 19% 31% 1% 1%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
> $150,000 . 8% 36% 23% 31% . 2%
$100,000 – $150,000 . 11% 38% 19% 32% . .
$60,000 – $100,000 3% 15% 28% 24% 30% . .
$40,000 – $60,000 7% 11% 33% 24% 26% . .
$20,000 – $40,000 8% 11% 34% 14% 32% . .
< $20,000 3% 18% 20% 23% 34% . 2%
Don't Know . 15% 43% 13% 15% 15% .
Refused Answer 1% 14% 30% 18% 34% 1% 1%
RELIGION NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
Other 3% 13% 22% 26% 35% . .
No Affiliation 8% 22% 39% 14% 17% . 1%
Muslim . . . . 100% . .
Jewish . 16% 34% 25% 22% . 3%
Mormon . . 25% 38% 38% . .
Catholic 1% 14% 26% 20% 38% 1% .
Protestant 4% 8% 34% 22% 31% 1% 0%
Don't Know . 100% . . . . .
Refused Answer . 6% 33% 14% 47% . .
VOTING METHOD NONE LITTLE SOME MUCH A GREAT DEAL Don't Know Refused Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 3% 14% 34% 16% 29% 2% 1%
Absentee Ballot 3% 16% 32% 18% 31% . 0%
Early Voting 4% 9% 24% 32% 30% . 1%
On Election Day 4% 11% 33% 20% 32% 0% .
Not Planning to Vote . . . . 100% . .
Don't Know . 26% 29% 46% . . .
Refused Answer . . 62% . 38% . .

 

Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think will be elected governor?

  CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
ALL 34% 48% 1% 0% 14% 0% 2%
PARTY CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Democrats 55% 27% 1% . 16% . 1%
Republicans 13% 74% 0% 0% 11% 1% 1%
Other 16% 41% . . 16% . 26%
Independents 36% 40% 1% . 19% . 4%
MEDIA MARKET CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Fort Myers 22% 53% . . 22% . 3%
Jacksonville 24% 65% . . 10% . 1%
Miami 51% 34% 1% . 12% . 2%
Orlando 34% 52% 1% . 11% 1% 1%
Other 29% 53% 1% . 17% . .
Pensacola 16% 68% . . 16% . .
Tampa Bay 37% 45% . 0% 16% 0% 1%
West Palm Beach 27% 47% 2% . 18% . 7%
RACE CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Other 40% 37% 1% . 18% . 3%
Black 68% 12% 3% . 15% . 3%
White 29% 54% 0% 0% 14% 0% 2%
HISPANIC CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
No 34% 49% 1% 0% 14% 0% 2%
Yes 38% 42% . . 18% . 3%
Don't Know 16% 50% . . 34% . .
Refused Answer 39% 29% . . 32% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
South 38% 43% 1% 0% 15% 0% 3%
North 29% 57% 1% . 12% 1% 1%
Don't Know/Refused 31% 23% . . 46% . .
AGE GROUP CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
18–24 27% 67% . . 5% . .
25–34 47% 39% . . 13% . 2%
35–44 40% 43% 1% 1% 12% 1% 3%
45–59 35% 46% 1% . 15% 0% 2%
60+ 30% 52% 1% . 16% 0% 1%
AGE GROUP II CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
18–60 38% 46% 1% 0% 13% 0% 2%
61+ 30% 52% 1% . 16% 0% 1%
SEX CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Female 37% 42% 1% . 19% 0% 2%
Male 31% 55% 1% 0% 10% 0% 2%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
> $150,000 28% 57% . 2% 13% . .
$100,000 – $150,000 38% 45% 1% . 12% 1% 3%
$60,000 – $100,000 30% 59% 0% . 11% . .
$40,000 – $60,000 44% 41% . . 14% . 1%
$20,000 – $40,000 36% 49% . . 11% . 4%
< $20,000 50% 30% 4% . 16% . .
Don't Know 29% 45% . . 26% . .
Refused Answer 23% 49% 1% . 22% 1% 4%
RELIGION CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Other 27% 54% 3% . 12% . 5%
No Affiliation 41% 41% 1% . 17% . .
Muslim . . . . 100% . .
Jewish 39% 37% . 3% 22% . .
Mormon . 100% . . . . .
Catholic 32% 51% 1% . 12% 0% 4%
Protestant 33% 52% 0% . 14% 1% 0%
Don't Know 100% . . . . . .
Refused Answer 46% 22% . . 22% . 10%
VOTING METHOD CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Don't Know Wouldn't Vote Refused Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 36% 46% . . 16% . 1%
Absentee Ballot 37% 44% 1% . 17% 0% 1%
Early Voting 38% 39% 1% 1% 19% . 2%
On Election Day 31% 55% 1% . 11% 1% 2%
Not Planning to Vote . . 100% . . . .
Don't Know 38% 18% . . 14% . 30%
Refused Answer 38% 62% . . . . .

 

Does the phrase "understands the problems of people like me" describe Rick Scott?

  NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 56% 38% 4% 2%
PARTY NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 79% 16% 3% 2%
Republicans 29% 63% 4% 3%
Other 75% 25% . .
Independents 64% 30% 3% 2%
MEDIA MARKET NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 50% 47% 3% .
Jacksonville 42% 54% 1% 3%
Miami 70% 26% 3% 1%
Orlando 55% 37% 6% 2%
Other 48% 47% 3% 3%
Pensacola 42% 48% 10% .
Tampa Bay 57% 36% 3% 4%
West Palm Beach 58% 35% 2% 5%
RACE NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 63% 27% 5% 5%
Black 77% 17% 4% 2%
White 53% 42% 3% 2%
HISPANIC NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 57% 37% 4% 2%
Yes 49% 45% 3% 2%
Don't Know 16% 56% 28% .
Refused Answer 80% 20% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 61% 34% 3% 3%
North 50% 43% 5% 2%
Don't Know/Refused 31% 46% . 23%
AGE GROUP NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 48% 47% 3% 2%
25–34 71% 24% 2% 3%
35–44 61% 34% 2% 3%
45–59 60% 38% 2% 1%
60+ 50% 42% 6% 3%
AGE GROUP II NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 61% 35% 2% 2%
61+ 50% 42% 6% 3%
SEX NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 58% 35% 3% 4%
Male 54% 41% 4% 1%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 48% 51% 2% .
$100,000 – $150,000 63% 33% 2% 1%
$60,000 – $100,000 58% 40% 2% .
$40,000 – $60,000 66% 30% 2% 3%
$20,000 – $40,000 54% 40% 3% 4%
< $20,000 64% 32% 4% .
Don't Know 33% 52% 15% .
Refused Answer 46% 39% 7% 7%
RELIGION NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 62% 36% 1% .
No Affiliation 77% 20% 1% 2%
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 74% 20% 7% .
Mormon 25% 75% . .
Catholic 48% 45% 5% 3%
Protestant 48% 45% 5% 2%
Don't Know 100% . . .
Refused Answer 61% 25% . 14%
VOTING METHOD NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 53% 38% 6% 3%
Absentee Ballot 59% 36% 4% 2%
Early Voting 59% 33% 2% 5%
On Election Day 55% 41% 3% 2%
Not Planning to Vote 100% . . .
Don't Know 50% 18% 14% 18%
Refused Answer 38% . 62% .

 

Does the phrase "provides leadership" describe Rick Scott?

  NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 45% 50% 2% 2%
PARTY NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 67% 28% 3% 2%
Republicans 21% 74% 2% 3%
Other 32% 68% . .
Independents 51% 44% 4% 1%
MEDIA MARKET NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 39% 58% 3% .
Jacksonville 29% 67% . 4%
Miami 58% 37% 5% 1%
Orlando 45% 51% 2% 2%
Other 38% 56% 4% 3%
Pensacola 29% 58% 10% 3%
Tampa Bay 49% 48% 1% 2%
West Palm Beach 45% 48% 2% 5%
RACE NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 51% 42% 3% 4%
Black 68% 26% 3% 3%
White 42% 54% 2% 2%
HISPANIC NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 45% 50% 2% 2%
Yes 47% 44% 7% 2%
Don't Know 16% 72% 12% .
Refused Answer 63% 37% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 50% 45% 2% 2%
North 39% 56% 2% 3%
Don't Know/Refused 31% 69% . .
AGE GROUP NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 41% 56% 3% .
25–34 60% 37% 2% 1%
35–44 47% 50% . 2%
45–59 45% 53% 0% 2%
60+ 42% 51% 4% 3%
AGE GROUP II NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 48% 49% 1% 2%
61+ 42% 51% 4% 3%
SEX NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 47% 47% 2% 3%
Male 44% 53% 3% 1%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 38% 59% . 2%
$100,000 – $150,000 47% 50% 3% .
$60,000 – $100,000 43% 55% 2% .
$40,000 – $60,000 54% 43% 1% 2%
$20,000 – $40,000 45% 50% 2% 2%
< $20,000 58% 39% 2% 1%
Don't Know 33% 44% 23% .
Refused Answer 38% 52% 3% 7%
RELIGION NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 49% 50% . 1%
No Affiliation 63% 35% 1% 1%
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 56% 40% 4% .
Mormon . 100% . .
Catholic 37% 58% 3% 2%
Protestant 40% 54% 3% 3%
Don't Know 100% . . .
Refused Answer 55% 29% . 16%
VOTING METHOD NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 43% 53% 5% .
Absentee Ballot 50% 44% 3% 3%
Early Voting 49% 45% 1% 5%
On Election Day 42% 54% 2% 2%
Not Planning to Vote 100% . . .
Don't Know 30% 56% 14% .
Refused Answer 38% 62% . .

 

Does the phrase "honest and ethical" describe Rick Scott?

  NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 59% 32% 6% 3%
PARTY NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 77% 17% 4% 2%
Republicans 36% 52% 7% 4%
Other 75% 25% . .
Independents 70% 22% 6% 2%
MEDIA MARKET NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 47% 47% 3% 3%
Jacksonville 46% 47% 4% 4%
Miami 68% 28% 2% 2%
Orlando 61% 30% 8% 1%
Other 56% 40% 1% 3%
Pensacola 48% 39% 13% .
Tampa Bay 61% 27% 7% 4%
West Palm Beach 60% 28% 7% 5%
RACE NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 69% 22% 5% 4%
Black 72% 20% 4% 3%
White 56% 35% 6% 3%
HISPANIC NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 60% 32% 6% 3%
Yes 55% 38% 3% 4%
Don't Know 32% 52% 16% .
Refused Answer 72% 20% 8% .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 62% 30% 5% 3%
North 56% 36% 6% 2%
Don't Know/Refused . 23% 54% 23%
AGE GROUP NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 44% 51% 3% 2%
25–34 74% 18% 7% 1%
35–44 61% 32% 4% 4%
45–59 62% 32% 4% 2%
60+ 54% 35% 7% 3%
AGE GROUP II NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 63% 31% 4% 2%
61+ 55% 35% 7% 3%
SEX NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 59% 30% 7% 4%
Male 59% 35% 4% 2%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 58% 39% 2% 2%
$100,000 – $150,000 64% 30% 5% 1%
$60,000 – $100,000 57% 36% 4% 3%
$40,000 – $60,000 70% 26% 1% 3%
$20,000 – $40,000 57% 33% 8% 2%
< $20,000 59% 31% 10% .
Don't Know 38% 46% 16% .
Refused Answer 54% 32% 7% 6%
RELIGION NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 65% 30% 4% 1%
No Affiliation 81% 14% 4% 1%
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 79% 21% . .
Mormon 38% 62% . .
Catholic 48% 41% 6% 5%
Protestant 52% 38% 8% 2%
Don't Know 100% . . .
Refused Answer 65% 19% . 16%
VOTING METHOD NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 55% 36% 6% 3%
Absentee Ballot 61% 31% 5% 3%
Early Voting 61% 27% 4% 8%
On Election Day 59% 34% 6% 1%
Not Planning to Vote 100% . . .
Don't Know 68% 18% 14% .
Refused Answer 38% . 62% .

 

In your opinion, does the phrase "understands the problems of people like me" describe Charlie Crist?

  NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 50% 45% 3% 2%
PARTY NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 31% 65% 2% 2%
Republicans 73% 22% 3% 2%
Other 25% 75% . .
Independents 42% 53% 2% 2%
MEDIA MARKET NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 58% 39% 3% .
Jacksonville 63% 35% . 1%
Miami 38% 57% 4% 2%
Orlando 53% 41% 5% 1%
Other 64% 30% 1% 5%
Pensacola 65% 29% 6% .
Tampa Bay 48% 47% 2% 3%
West Palm Beach 40% 57% . 3%
RACE NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 40% 51% 1% 7%
Black 18% 79% 3% 1%
White 55% 40% 3% 2%
HISPANIC NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 51% 45% 3% 2%
Yes 43% 51% 2% 4%
Don't Know 46% 32% 22% .
Refused Answer 51% 49% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 45% 51% 2% 2%
North 58% 37% 3% 1%
Don't Know/Refused 23% 54% . 23%
AGE GROUP NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 45% 49% 3% 2%
25–34 49% 43% 3% 5%
35–44 44% 54% 1% 1%
45–59 51% 45% 2% 1%
60+ 52% 43% 3% 2%
AGE GROUP II NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 48% 47% 2% 2%
61+ 52% 42% 3% 2%
SEX NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 48% 47% 2% 3%
Male 52% 44% 3% 2%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 56% 44% . .
$100,000 – $150,000 44% 51% 2% 2%
$60,000 – $100,000 51% 46% 3% .
$40,000 – $60,000 48% 49% 1% 2%
$20,000 – $40,000 51% 46% 1% 2%
< $20,000 44% 50% 6% .
Don't Know 33% 56% 11% .
Refused Answer 56% 34% 5% 6%
RELIGION NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 58% 39% 2% .
No Affiliation 47% 48% 3% 2%
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 27% 69% 4% .
Mormon 100% . . .
Catholic 49% 47% 2% 2%
Protestant 55% 40% 3% 1%
Don't Know . 100% . .
Refused Answer 13% 65% . 23%
VOTING METHOD NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 41% 52% 6% 1%
Absentee Ballot 51% 45% 2% 3%
Early Voting 42% 48% 4% 6%
On Election Day 55% 43% 1% 1%
Not Planning to Vote . 100% . .
Don't Know 18% 50% 14% 18%
Refused Answer 62% 38% . .

 

Does the phrase "provides leadership" describe Charlie Crist?

  NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 53% 43% 2% 1%
PARTY NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 32% 64% 3% 2%
Republicans 75% 21% 2% 2%
Other 41% 59% . .
Independents 50% 47% 2% 1%
MEDIA MARKET NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 53% 39% 6% 3%
Jacksonville 65% 33% 1% 1%
Miami 39% 58% 2% 1%
Orlando 57% 40% 3% .
Other 69% 25% 4% 3%
Pensacola 61% 32% 6% .
Tampa Bay 51% 46% 1% 2%
West Palm Beach 50% 45% 2% 3%
RACE NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 43% 52% 2% 4%
Black 21% 75% 3% 1%
White 58% 38% 2% 1%
HISPANIC NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 53% 44% 2% 1%
Yes 49% 44% 4% 2%
Don't Know 62% 16% . 22%
Refused Answer 53% 47% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 48% 48% 2% 2%
North 60% 36% 3% 1%
Don't Know/Refused 23% 54% . 23%
AGE GROUP NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 47% 48% 3% 2%
25–34 45% 51% 3% 1%
35–44 50% 49% . 1%
45–59 58% 40% 1% 1%
60+ 53% 41% 3% 2%
AGE GROUP II NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 52% 45% 1% 1%
61+ 53% 42% 4% 2%
SEX NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 50% 46% 2% 2%
Male 56% 41% 3% 1%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 51% 47% 2% .
$100,000 – $150,000 47% 51% 2% .
$60,000 – $100,000 60% 39% 1% .
$40,000 – $60,000 43% 55% . 1%
$20,000 – $40,000 50% 47% . 2%
< $20,000 48% 49% 3% .
Don't Know 46% 26% 28% .
Refused Answer 62% 28% 5% 5%
RELIGION NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 61% 38% 1% .
No Affiliation 52% 46% 2% 0%
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 26% 74% . .
Mormon 100% . . .
Catholic 53% 43% 2% 2%
Protestant 57% 39% 3% 1%
Don't Know . 100% . .
Refused Answer 20% 64% . 16%
VOTING METHOD NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 45% 49% 4% 2%
Absentee Ballot 53% 43% 3% 1%
Early Voting 49% 44% 2% 4%
On Election Day 56% 41% 2% 1%
Not Planning to Vote 100% . . .
Don't Know 18% 68% 14% .
Refused Answer 62% 38% . .

 

Does the phrase "honest and ethical" describe Charlie Crist?

  NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 58% 34% 5% 3%
PARTY NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 39% 53% 5% 2%
Republicans 78% 14% 5% 3%
Other 84% 16% . .
Independents 58% 35% 6% 2%
MEDIA MARKET NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 67% 33% . .
Jacksonville 66% 25% 5% 4%
Miami 48% 46% 4% 2%
Orlando 65% 26% 7% 2%
Other 58% 36% 3% 3%
Pensacola 58% 35% 6% .
Tampa Bay 58% 34% 4% 4%
West Palm Beach 53% 33% 10% 3%
RACE NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 50% 39% 6% 5%
Black 23% 72% 3% 2%
White 64% 28% 5% 2%
HISPANIC NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 59% 34% 5% 2%
Yes 50% 38% 6% 6%
Don't Know 72% 28% . .
Refused Answer 60% 40% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 56% 37% 4% 3%
North 63% 29% 6% 2%
Don't Know/Refused 23% 54% . 23%
AGE GROUP NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 42% 49% 7% 2%
25–34 61% 35% 4% 1%
35–44 59% 34% 5% 2%
45–59 61% 36% 2% 1%
60+ 58% 31% 7% 4%
AGE GROUP II NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 59% 36% 3% 1%
61+ 58% 31% 7% 4%
SEX NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 56% 35% 6% 3%
Male 61% 33% 5% 2%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 61% 39% . .
$100,000 – $150,000 56% 39% 4% .
$60,000 – $100,000 63% 32% 4% 1%
$40,000 – $60,000 53% 37% 5% 4%
$20,000 – $40,000 58% 36% 3% 3%
< $20,000 53% 42% 6% .
Don't Know 32% 40% 27% .
Refused Answer 65% 22% 7% 6%
RELIGION NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 64% 33% 3% .
No Affiliation 63% 33% 4% .
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 53% 38% 8% .
Mormon 100% . . .
Catholic 57% 35% 4% 4%
Protestant 59% 32% 6% 2%
Don't Know . . 100% .
Refused Answer 20% 58% 6% 16%
VOTING METHOD NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 49% 42% 5% 3%
Absentee Ballot 60% 33% 5% 2%
Early Voting 54% 35% 5% 5%
On Election Day 62% 32% 5% 2%
Not Planning to Vote 100% . . .
Don't Know 36% 50% 14% .
Refused Answer 62% 38% . .

 

In your opinion, does the phrase "understands the problems of people like me" describe Adrian Wyllie?

(Asked only of those voting for Wyllie.)

  NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 12% 70% 16% 2%
PARTY NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 26% 60% 14% .
Republicans 5% 77% 18% .
Other . 100% . .
Independents 7% 66% 19% 7%
MEDIA MARKET NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers . 50% 50% .
Jacksonville . 50% 50% .
Miami 33% 67% . .
Orlando 7% 73% 20% .
Other . 100% . .
Tampa Bay 14% 71% 7% 7%
West Palm Beach . 67% 33% .
RACE NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 25% 50% . 25%
Black 100% . . .
White 8% 74% 18% .
HISPANIC NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 13% 67% 17% 2%
Yes . 100% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 16% 68% 13% 3%
North 5% 73% 22% .
AGE GROUP NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 . 73% 27% .
25–34 20% 54% 13% 13%
35–44 . 100% . .
45–59 . 76% 24% .
60+ 19% 66% 15% .
AGE GROUP II NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 6% 74% 17% 4%
61+ 19% 66% 15% .
SEX NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 21% 62% 11% 5%
Male 6% 74% 19% .
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
RELIGION NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
VOTING METHOD NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 . 100% . .
$100,000 – $150,000 . 67% 33% .
$60,000 – $100,000 . 100% . .
$40,000 – $60,000 23% 45% 32% .
$20,000 – $40,000 31% 36% 33% .
< $20,000 15% 85% . .
Refused Answer 7% 73% 14% 7%
Other . 100% . .
No Affiliation 16% 49% 35% .
Catholic 9% 78% 14% .
Protestant 15% 79% 6% .
Refused Answer . 50% . 50%
Haven't Decided Yet 13% 57% 30% .
Absentee Ballot 12% 88% . .
Early Voting 29% 52% 19% .
On Election Day 8% 67% 25% .
Not Planning to Vote . 100% . .
Don't Know . . . 100%

 

Does the phrase "provides leadership" describe Adrian Wyllie?

(Asked only of those voting for Wyllie.)

  NO YES Don't Know
ALL 17% 61% 21%
PARTY NO YES Don't Know
Democrats 20% 50% 30%
Republicans 24% 58% 18%
Other . 100% .
Independents 7% 73% 19%
MEDIA MARKET NO YES Don't Know
Fort Myers . 50% 50%
Jacksonville . 50% 50%
Miami 33% 67% .
Orlando 27% 53% 20%
Other . 100% .
Tampa Bay . 86% 14%
West Palm Beach 33% . 67%
RACE NO YES Don't Know
Other . 75% 25%
Black 100% . .
White 16% 62% 22%
HISPANIC NO YES Don't Know
No 19% 58% 23%
Yes . 100% .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NO YES Don't Know
South 15% 64% 21%
North 22% 56% 22%
AGE GROUP NO YES Don't Know
18–24 . 73% 27%
25–34 41% 46% 13%
35–44 . 65% 35%
45–59 10% 66% 24%
60+ 19% 62% 19%
AGE GROUP II NO YES Don't Know
18–60 16% 61% 23%
61+ 19% 62% 19%
SEX NO YES Don't Know
Female 27% 62% 11%
Male 12% 61% 27%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NO YES Don't Know
> $150,000 . 100% .
$100,000 – $150,000 . 67% 33%
$60,000 – $100,000 42% 58% .
$40,000 – $60,000 23% 45% 32%
$20,000 – $40,000 19% 36% 45%
< $20,000 15% 60% 24%
Refused Answer 7% 79% 14%
RELIGION NO YES Don't Know
Other 63% 37% .
No Affiliation 16% 43% 41%
Catholic 17% 55% 28%
Protestant 9% 85% 6%
Refused Answer . 100% .
VOTING METHOD NO YES Don't Know
Haven't Decided Yet 13% 57% 30%
Absentee Ballot 10% 74% 16%
Early Voting 48% 33% 19%
On Election Day 19% 56% 25%
Not Planning to Vote . 100% .
Don't Know . 100% .

 

Does the phrase "honest and ethical" describe Adrian Wyllie?

(Asked only of those voting for Wyllie.)

  NO YES Don't Know
ALL 15% 66% 19%
PARTY NO YES Don't Know
Democrats 20% 56% 24%
Republicans 14% 64% 23%
Other . 100% .
Independents 15% 74% 11%
MEDIA MARKET NO YES Don't Know
Fort Myers . 50% 50%
Jacksonville . 50% 50%
Miami 33% 50% 17%
Orlando 7% 73% 20%
Other . 100% .
Tampa Bay 14% 79% 7%
West Palm Beach 33% 33% 33%
RACE NO YES Don't Know
Other 25% 75% .
Black 100% . .
White 12% 67% 21%
HISPANIC NO YES Don't Know
No 17% 66% 17%
Yes . 62% 38%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NO YES Don't Know
South 21% 62% 17%
North 5% 73% 22%
AGE GROUP NO YES Don't Know
18–24 . 100% .
25–34 54% 13% 33%
35–44 . 65% 35%
45–59 10% 57% 34%
60+ 11% 81% 8%
AGE GROUP II NO YES Don't Know
18–60 19% 52% 29%
61+ 11% 81% 8%
SEX NO YES Don't Know
Female 21% 62% 16%
Male 12% 68% 21%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NO YES Don't Know
> $150,000 . 100% .
$100,000 – $150,000 24% 43% 33%
$60,000 – $100,000 19% 64% 18%
$40,000 – $60,000 23% 45% 32%
$20,000 – $40,000 19% 68% 13%
< $20,000 15% 60% 24%
Refused Answer 7% 80% 14%
RELIGION NO YES Don't Know
Other 39% . 61%
No Affiliation 10% 62% 28%
Catholic 17% 69% 14%
Protestant 9% 85% 6%
Refused Answer 50% 50% .
VOTING METHOD NO YES Don't Know
Haven't Decided Yet 13% 70% 17%
Absentee Ballot 10% 71% 19%
Early Voting 29% 33% 38%
On Election Day 13% 70% 16%
Not Planning to Vote . 100% .
Don't Know 100% . .

 

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as governor?

  DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 49% 44% 4% 3%
PARTY DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 75% 19% 3% 2%
Republicans 21% 72% 5% 3%
Other 33% 67% . .
Independents 57% 36% 3% 4%
MEDIA MARKET DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 42% 53% 6% .
Jacksonville 34% 59% 3% 4%
Miami 63% 27% 7% 3%
Orlando 47% 47% 4% 2%
Other 45% 48% 4% 3%
Pensacola 39% 55% . 6%
Tampa Bay 51% 43% 3% 3%
West Palm Beach 50% 43% 3% 3%
RACE DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 56% 35% 6% 3%
Black 84% 10% 3% 4%
White 44% 49% 4% 3%
HISPANIC DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 50% 44% 3% 2%
Yes 43% 43% 9% 5%
Don't Know 16% 66% . 18%
Refused Answer 71% 29% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 54% 39% 4% 3%
North 43% 50% 4% 3%
Don't Know/Refused . 69% 31% .
AGE GROUP DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 44% 48% 5% 2%
25–34 65% 27% 7% .
35–44 51% 45% 1% 3%
45–59 52% 41% 4% 3%
60+ 44% 49% 4% 3%
AGE GROUP II DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 54% 40% 4% 2%
61+ 44% 49% 4% 3%
SEX DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 51% 40% 5% 4%
Male 48% 48% 3% 1%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 47% 48% 3% 2%
$100,000 – $150,000 59% 37% 3% .
$60,000 – $100,000 48% 48% 3% 2%
$40,000 – $60,000 59% 37% 1% 4%
$20,000 – $40,000 46% 47% 4% 3%
< $20,000 60% 32% 7% 1%
Don't Know 32% 49% 13% 6%
Refused Answer 39% 51% 5% 5%
RELIGION DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 50% 44% 5% 1%
No Affiliation 70% 26% 2% 2%
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 71% 17% 8% 4%
Mormon . 100% . .
Catholic 40% 53% 4% 2%
Protestant 43% 51% 4% 3%
Don't Know 100% . . .
Refused Answer 55% 25% 6% 14%
VOTING METHOD DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 49% 45% 5% 1%
Absentee Ballot 53% 41% 2% 3%
Early Voting 53% 36% 6% 5%
On Election Day 46% 48% 4% 2%
Not Planning to Vote 100% . . .
Don't Know 68% 18% 14% .
Refused Answer 38% 62% . .

 

Thinking back to when Charlie Crist was Florida governor from 2007 to 2011, did you approve or disapprove of the way that he handled his job as governor?

  DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 41% 48% 3% 6% 3%
PARTY DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 27% 61% 2% 7% 3%
Republicans 56% 34% 2% 5% 3%
Other 41% 43% . 16% .
Independents 38% 47% 7% 5% 3%
MEDIA MARKET DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 44% 44% 6% 6% .
Jacksonville 56% 37% 3% 3% 3%
Miami 29% 60% 1% 7% 3%
Orlando 44% 43% 4% 8% 2%
Other 44% 43% 3% 5% 5%
Pensacola 52% 39% 3% 3% 3%
Tampa Bay 42% 44% 5% 6% 4%
West Palm Beach 32% 60% . 5% 3%
RACE DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 36% 46% 6% 10% 3%
Black 19% 67% 1% 7% 5%
White 44% 45% 3% 5% 3%
HISPANIC DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 41% 48% 3% 5% 3%
Yes 40% 45% 1% 8% 6%
Don't Know 46% 16% 16% 22% .
Refused Answer 16% 63% . 20% .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 37% 52% 3% 6% 3%
North 47% 41% 3% 6% 2%
Don't Know/Refused 23% 77% . . .
AGE GROUP DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 47% 42% 3% 5% 2%
25–34 41% 40% 5% 11% 2%
35–44 41% 51% 1% 3% 4%
45–59 40% 53% 1% 4% 2%
60+ 41% 46% 4% 6% 3%
AGE GROUP II DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 41% 50% 2% 5% 3%
61+ 41% 45% 4% 6% 3%
SEX DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 38% 47% 4% 7% 4%
Male 44% 48% 3% 4% 2%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 34% 56% 5% 3% 2%
$100,000 – $150,000 42% 52% 2% 3% .
$60,000 – $100,000 38% 55% 2% 1% 4%
$40,000 – $60,000 39% 48% 6% 4% 4%
$20,000 – $40,000 45% 42% 1% 9% 3%
< $20,000 42% 53% 1% 4% .
Don't Know 31% 31% 5% 33% .
Refused Answer 45% 37% 4% 10% 5%
RELIGION DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 49% 43% 4% 1% 2%
No Affiliation 45% 45% 3% 6% 1%
Muslim . 100% . . .
Jewish 22% 76% 3% . .
Mormon 38% 62% . . .
Catholic 41% 45% 4% 8% 3%
Protestant 41% 47% 3% 6% 3%
Don't Know . 100% . . .
Refused Answer 16% 58% . 6% 20%
VOTING METHOD DISAPPROVE APPROVE Did not live in Florida then Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 38% 47% 6% 8% 1%
Absentee Ballot 39% 47% 4% 6% 3%
Early Voting 36% 52% . 7% 6%
On Election Day 44% 47% 2% 5% 2%
Not Planning to Vote 100% . . . .
Don't Know 56% 44% . . .
Refused Answer 62% 38% . . .

 

Which of these best describes your opinion about Florida's economy?

  Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 25% 27% 47% 1% 0%
PARTY Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 28% 30% 40% 1% 0%
Republicans 23% 22% 52% 1% 1%
Other 25% 43% 32% . .
Independents 22% 28% 50% 1% .
MEDIA MARKET Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 19% 31% 50% . .
Jacksonville 20% 27% 53% . .
Miami 27% 24% 48% 1% .
Orlando 31% 23% 44% 2% 1%
Other 26% 31% 42% 1% .
Pensacola 16% 39% 42% 3% .
Tampa Bay 22% 30% 45% 2% 1%
West Palm Beach 27% 23% 50% . .
RACE Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 23% 27% 49% 1% .
Black 32% 33% 35% . .
White 24% 26% 48% 1% 0%
HISPANIC Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 24% 27% 47% 1% 0%
Yes 30% 23% 45% 2% .
Don't Know 32% 12% 56% . .
Refused Answer 36% 16% 48% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 24% 27% 48% 1% 0%
North 26% 27% 46% 1% 0%
Don't Know/Refused 77% 23% . . .
AGE GROUP Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 11% 45% 44% . .
25–34 20% 33% 45% 2% .
35–44 28% 26% 46% . .
45–59 30% 25% 44% 1% .
60+ 24% 24% 49% 2% 1%
AGE GROUP II Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 26% 29% 45% 1% .
61+ 25% 24% 49% 2% 1%
SEX Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 30% 28% 40% 1% 0%
Male 20% 25% 54% 1% 0%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 18% 21% 60% . 2%
$100,000 – $150,000 10% 30% 60% . .
$60,000 – $100,000 15% 37% 48% . .
$40,000 – $60,000 28% 25% 45% 1% .
$20,000 – $40,000 32% 24% 43% . 1%
< $20,000 51% 15% 33% 1% .
Don't Know 23% 28% 44% 5% .
Refused Answer 31% 23% 42% 4% 1%
RELIGION Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 27% 39% 32% 1% .
No Affiliation 27% 27% 44% 1% 1%
Muslim . . 100% . .
Jewish 19% 13% 64% 4% .
Mormon 25% . 75% . .
Catholic 25% 25% 47% 2% 0%
Protestant 24% 27% 47% 1% .
Don't Know . . 100% . .
Refused Answer 31% 12% 57% . .
VOTING METHOD Won't recover for a long time Not recovering, but will soon Recovering Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 28% 31% 41% . .
Absentee Ballot 24% 27% 47% 1% 0%
Early Voting 24% 22% 52% 2% .
On Election Day 25% 27% 47% 1% 1%
Not Planning to Vote . . 100% . .
Don't Know 48% . 52% . .
Refused Answer 38% 62% . . .

 

Is the condition of Florida's economy something the governor can do a lot about, or is that beyond any governor's control?

  Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 27% 66% 3% 4%
PARTY Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 27% 65% 5% 4%
Republicans 27% 67% 3% 4%
Other 43% 57% . .
Independents 31% 66% 1% 3%
MEDIA MARKET Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 33% 61% 3% 3%
Jacksonville 19% 76% 4% 1%
Miami 17% 78% 4% 1%
Orlando 26% 66% 3% 5%
Other 39% 55% 3% 4%
Pensacola 29% 65% 3% 3%
Tampa Bay 34% 58% 2% 6%
West Palm Beach 32% 60% 5% 3%
RACE Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 25% 66% 2% 7%
Black 23% 74% 1% 2%
White 28% 65% 4% 3%
HISPANIC Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 28% 65% 3% 4%
Yes 18% 76% 3% 2%
Don't Know 32% 52% . 16%
Refused Answer 45% 48% . 8%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 28% 66% 3% 3%
North 27% 66% 3% 4%
Don't Know/Refused 54% 46% . .
AGE GROUP Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 27% 73% . .
25–34 28% 68% 3% 2%
35–44 30% 65% 3% 3%
45–59 29% 64% 4% 2%
60+ 26% 65% 4% 5%
AGE GROUP II Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 29% 66% 3% 2%
61+ 26% 66% 4% 5%
SEX Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 27% 65% 4% 4%
Male 28% 66% 3% 3%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 37% 56% 2% 5%
$100,000 – $150,000 39% 59% 2% .
$60,000 – $100,000 21% 70% 4% 5%
$40,000 – $60,000 30% 65% 2% 3%
$20,000 – $40,000 23% 68% 5% 3%
< $20,000 33% 60% 2% 4%
Don't Know 19% 70% 11% .
Refused Answer 23% 69% 4% 5%
RELIGION Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 26% 69% 3% 1%
No Affiliation 32% 60% 3% 4%
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 25% 63% 8% 4%
Mormon 25% 75% . .
Catholic 23% 73% 1% 3%
Protestant 28% 63% 4% 5%
Don't Know . 100% . .
Refused Answer 37% 63% . .
VOTING METHOD Beyond any governor's control Governor can do a lot about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 22% 71% 5% 3%
Absentee Ballot 25% 67% 4% 5%
Early Voting 37% 56% 4% 3%
On Election Day 28% 66% 2% 3%
Not Planning to Vote . 100% . .
Don't Know 38% 62% . .
Refused Answer . 38% . 62%

 

Do you support federal immigration reform, including a pathway to citizenship?

  NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 32% 57% 6% 4%
PARTY NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 26% 67% 4% 3%
Republicans 42% 45% 9% 5%
Other 41% 43% 16% .
Independents 23% 65% 5% 7%
MEDIA MARKET NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 36% 61% 3% .
Jacksonville 34% 61% 3% 3%
Miami 23% 67% 4% 7%
Orlando 37% 49% 9% 5%
Other 40% 48% 10% 1%
Pensacola 29% 52% 13% 6%
Tampa Bay 28% 61% 7% 4%
West Palm Beach 40% 50% 3% 7%
RACE NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 24% 59% 9% 7%
Black 16% 76% 2% 5%
White 35% 55% 6% 4%
HISPANIC NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 34% 56% 6% 4%
Yes 18% 73% 3% 6%
Don't Know 22% 48% 12% 18%
Refused Answer 29% 40% 12% 20%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 30% 61% 5% 5%
North 36% 53% 8% 4%
Don't Know/Refused 54% 23% . 23%
AGE GROUP NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 21% 59% 15% 5%
25–34 26% 62% 8% 4%
35–44 32% 61% 4% 3%
45–59 28% 60% 7% 5%
60+ 37% 54% 5% 5%
AGE GROUP II NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 29% 60% 7% 4%
61+ 36% 54% 5% 5%
SEX NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 30% 56% 9% 6%
Male 35% 59% 3% 3%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 26% 65% 3% 6%
$100,000 – $150,000 26% 71% 3% .
$60,000 – $100,000 31% 61% 5% 4%
$40,000 – $60,000 33% 60% 4% 2%
$20,000 – $40,000 36% 54% 7% 3%
< $20,000 29% 63% 8% .
Don't Know 53% 28% 19% .
Refused Answer 35% 42% 10% 13%
RELIGION NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 32% 54% 10% 4%
No Affiliation 24% 72% 3% 1%
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 30% 65% . 4%
Mormon 62% 38% . .
Catholic 36% 52% 8% 5%
Protestant 35% 54% 7% 4%
Don't Know . 100% . .
Refused Answer 24% 43% 4% 29%
VOTING METHOD NO YES Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 33% 55% 9% 3%
Absentee Ballot 33% 57% 5% 4%
Early Voting 24% 58% 10% 8%
On Election Day 34% 57% 5% 4%
Not Planning to Vote . 100% . .
Don't Know . 100% . .
Refused Answer 62% 38% . .

 

Do you favor or oppose increasing the minimum wage in Florida? Or haven't you thought much about this?

  FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 57% 27% 14% 1% 1%
PARTY FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 75% 12% 11% 1% 1%
Republicans 34% 45% 17% 2% 1%
Other 33% 67% . . .
Independents 69% 17% 13% 1% 1%
MEDIA MARKET FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 50% 25% 19% 3% 3%
Jacksonville 44% 43% 13% . .
Miami 70% 21% 8% . 1%
Orlando 49% 29% 16% 2% 3%
Other 48% 34% 16% 1% 1%
Pensacola 58% 26% 16% . .
Tampa Bay 61% 24% 15% 0% 0%
West Palm Beach 62% 23% 13% 2% .
RACE FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 67% 18% 11% . 3%
Black 89% 3% 8% . .
White 52% 31% 15% 1% 1%
HISPANIC FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 55% 29% 14% 1% 1%
Yes 70% 13% 15% . 2%
Don't Know 62% . 22% . 16%
Refused Answer 63% 8% 29% . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 63% 23% 13% 1% 0%
North 48% 33% 16% 1% 2%
Don't Know/Refused 23% 23% 54% . .
AGE GROUP FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 45% 36% 15% . 4%
25–34 60% 24% 16% . .
35–44 61% 25% 13% 1% 1%
45–59 60% 28% 11% 0% 0%
60+ 54% 27% 15% 2% 2%
AGE GROUP II FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 59% 27% 13% 0% 1%
61+ 55% 26% 15% 2% 2%
SEX FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 60% 23% 16% 1% 1%
Male 54% 31% 12% 1% 1%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 47% 40% 9% 3% 2%
$100,000 – $150,000 62% 27% 11% 1% .
$60,000 – $100,000 58% 27% 12% 1% 1%
$40,000 – $60,000 63% 20% 14% 1% 2%
$20,000 – $40,000 67% 19% 13% . 1%
< $20,000 61% 18% 19% 1% .
Don't Know 39% 19% 42% . .
Refused Answer 42% 38% 16% 1% 3%
RELIGION FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 66% 18% 12% 3% 1%
No Affiliation 63% 19% 15% 1% 2%
Muslim 100% . . . .
Jewish 71% 19% 10% . .
Mormon 38% 25% 38% . .
Catholic 55% 28% 14% 2% 1%
Protestant 51% 34% 14% 1% 1%
Don't Know 100% . . . .
Refused Answer 56% 20% 18% . 6%
VOTING METHOD FAVOR OPPOSE Haven't thought much about it Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 61% 19% 20% . .
Absentee Ballot 55% 26% 16% 1% 2%
Early Voting 61% 25% 13% 1% 1%
On Election Day 56% 30% 12% 1% 1%
Not Planning to Vote . 100% . . .
Don't Know 82% 18% . . .
Refused Answer . 100% . . .

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

  DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
ALL 56% 38% 3% 3%
PARTY DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Democrats 30% 63% 3% 4%
Republicans 88% 9% 2% 2%
Other 57% 43% . .
Independents 46% 47% 5% 3%
MEDIA MARKET DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Fort Myers 61% 31% 3% 6%
Jacksonville 68% 29% 1% 1%
Miami 45% 51% 2% 2%
Orlando 60% 33% 5% 2%
Other 69% 27% 1% 3%
Pensacola 55% 39% 6% .
Tampa Bay 55% 40% 2% 4%
West Palm Beach 53% 40% 2% 5%
RACE DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 42% 40% 8% 10%
Black 5% 87% 3% 5%
White 65% 31% 2% 2%
HISPANIC DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
No 57% 38% 3% 2%
Yes 57% 36% 1% 6%
Don't Know 50% 34% . 16%
Refused Answer 33% 43% 16% 8%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
South 52% 43% 2% 3%
North 62% 32% 4% 2%
Don't Know/Refused 54% 23% . 23%
AGE GROUP DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–24 48% 48% . 4%
25–34 54% 41% 1% 4%
35–44 51% 45% 2% 2%
45–59 54% 42% 2% 2%
60+ 61% 32% 4% 3%
AGE GROUP II DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
18–60 53% 43% 2% 3%
61+ 61% 32% 4% 3%
SEX DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Female 51% 43% 3% 3%
Male 63% 32% 3% 2%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
> $150,000 61% 39% . .
$100,000 – $150,000 51% 47% 2% .
$60,000 – $100,000 59% 37% 3% 1%
$40,000 – $60,000 50% 43% 3% 3%
$20,000 – $40,000 54% 40% 1% 5%
< $20,000 48% 48% 4% .
Don't Know 63% 12% 25% .
Refused Answer 65% 26% 1% 7%
RELIGION DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Other 53% 44% 2% 1%
No Affiliation 46% 48% 5% 1%
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 51% 41% 4% 4%
Mormon 100% . . .
Catholic 59% 36% 3% 3%
Protestant 64% 32% 2% 3%
Don't Know . 100% . .
Refused Answer 32% 49% . 20%
VOTING METHOD DISAPPROVE APPROVE Don't Know Refused to
Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 50% 40% 7% 3%
Absentee Ballot 55% 39% 2% 4%
Early Voting 52% 42% 2% 4%
On Election Day 61% 36% 2% 2%
Not Planning to Vote 100% . . .
Don't Know 18% 64% . 18%
Refused Answer 100% . . .

 

About the Poll

The telephone survey of 781 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November election — was conducted Oct. 7–12 for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and News 13 by the University of Florida's Bob Graham Center for Public Service and Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

The poll, which included respondents using land lines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Results were weighted by age, party registration and media market, thus allowing the results to mirror the distribution in the Florida Voter File.

NOTE: Figures may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.