Support for Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana, continues to decline, according to a new exclusive Bay News 9/Tampa Bay Times/UF Graham Center poll.
The poll surveyed 850 Floridians who are likely to vote, and found that 46 percent of those polled said they planned to vote yes on Amendment 2. Forty-three percent of the respondents said they planned to vote no.
Seven percent of those polled said they didn't know how they were going to vote, and 4 percent refused to answer the question.
The latest poll numbers reflect a downward trend in support for Amendment 2. Earlier this month, another exclusive poll found that 48 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Amendment 2. That was down from a September poll that found 57 percent of those polled supported Amendment 2.
But even that highest level of support may not have been enough to pass Amendment 2, as a constitutional amendment needs to receive 60 percent of the vote before becoming law.
Poll Index
- How did you vote/do you think you will vote on Amendment 2?
Poll Results: How did you vote/do you think you will vote on Amendment 2?
1. All Voters
YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ALL | 46% | 43% | 7% | 4% |
PARTY | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Democrats | 56% | 32% | 7% | 4% |
Republicans | 32% | 58% | 6% | 4% |
Other | 67% | . | 33% | . |
Independents | 50% | 38% | 7% | 5% |
MEDIA MARKET | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Fort Myers | 39% | 47% | 5% | 10% |
Jacksonville | 46% | 42% | 7% | 6% |
Miami | 50% | 39% | 5% | 6% |
Orlando | 45% | 47% | 6% | 2% |
Other | 45% | 50% | 5% | . |
Pensacola | 42% | 44% | 9% | 5% |
Tampa Bay | 48% | 43% | 5% | 4% |
West Palm Beach | 44% | 34% | 16% | 7% |
RACE | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Other | 49% | 35% | 6% | 10% |
Black | 49% | 36% | 9% | 6% |
White | 45% | 45% | 7% | 3% |
HISPANIC | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
No | 47% | 43% | 7% | 4% |
Yes | 36% | 50% | 9% | 5% |
Don't Know | . | 43% | 28% | 28% |
Refused Answer | 48% | 29% | . | 22% |
GEOGRAPHIC AREA | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
South | 47% | 41% | 7% | 6% |
North | 45% | 46% | 6% | 3% |
Don't Know/Refused | 33% | 43% | 25% | . |
AGE GROUP | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
18–24 | 60% | 40% | . | . |
25–34 | 68% | 26% | 6% | 6% |
35–44 | 51% | 33% | 9% | 9% |
45–59 | 50% | 38% | 6% | 6% |
60+ | 34% | 54% | 8% | 8% |
AGE GROUP II | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
18–60 | 55% | 34% | 6% | 6% |
61+ | 34% | 55% | 8% | 8% |
SEX | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Female | 42% | 45% | 9% | 9% |
Male | 50% | 42% | 4% | 4% |
VOTING METHOD | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Plan to Vote | 47% | 41% | 9% | 9% |
Absentee Ballot | 41% | 50% | 2% | 2% |
Early Voting | 47% | 43% | 1% | 1% |
Don't Know | 45% | 42% | 13% | 13% |
Refused Answer | 68% | . | 32% | 32% |
2. Asked only of those who already voted
YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ALL | 43% | 47% | 2% | 8% |
PARTY | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Democrats | 57% | 32% | 4% | 8% |
Republicans | 25% | 66% | 2% | 7% |
Other | 100% | . | . | . |
Independents | 47% | 41% | . | 12% |
MEDIA MARKET | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Fort Myers | 45% | 43% | . | 12% |
Jacksonville | 35% | 57% | . | 8% |
Miami | 46% | 35% | 6% | 13% |
Orlando | 33% | 62% | 3% | 3% |
Other | 45% | 52% | 3% | . |
Pensacola | 42% | 58% | . | . |
Tampa Bay | 50% | 41% | 1% | 8% |
West Palm Beach | 39% | 37% | 4% | 20% |
RACE | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Other | 51% | 29% | . | 19% |
Black | 45% | 43% | 4% | 9% |
White | 41% | 50% | 2% | 6% |
HISPANIC | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
No | 42% | 49% | 2% | 7% |
Yes | 49% | 39% | 4% | 7% |
Don't Know | . | . | . | 100% |
Refused Answer | 43% | . | . | 57% |
GEOGRAPHIC AREA | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
South | 47% | 40% | 2% | 12% |
North | 36% | 59% | 2% | 3% |
Don't Know/Refused | 48% | 28% | 24% | . |
AGE GROUP | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
18–24 | 62% | 38% | . | . |
25–34 | 82% | 14% | 4% | . |
35–44 | 45% | 51% | . | 4% |
45–59 | 38% | 42% | 3% | 17% |
60+ | 38% | 54% | 2% | 7% |
AGE GROUP II | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
18–60 | 50% | 38% | 2% | 11% |
61+ | 37% | 55% | 2% | 6% |
SEX | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Female | 39% | 50% | 2% | 9% |
Male | 47% | 44% | 3% | 6% |
VOTING METHOD | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Absentee Ballot | 41% | 49% | 2% | 8% |
Early Voting | 47% | 43% | 1% | 9% |
Refused Answer | . | . | 100% | . |
3. Asked of those who haven't voted, but plan to vot
YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ALL | 47% | 41% | 9% | 3% |
PARTY | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Democrats | 56% | 32% | 10% | 2% |
Republicans | 36% | 53% | 8% | 3% |
Other | 50% | . | 50% | . |
Independents | 52% | 37% | 9% | 2% |
MEDIA MARKET | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Fort Myers | 31% | 51% | 11% | 7% |
Jacksonville | 49% | 37% | 9% | 5% |
Miami | 51% | 41% | 5% | 3% |
Orlando | 52% | 38% | 8% | 2% |
Other | 45% | 49% | 6% | . |
Pensacola | 42% | 41% | 11% | 6% |
Tampa Bay | 47% | 44% | 8% | 1% |
West Palm Beach | 45% | 33% | 20% | 2% |
RACE | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
Other | 48% | 38% | 9% | 5% |
Black | 50% | 33% | 11% | 5% |
White | 47% | 42% | 9% | 2% |
HISPANIC | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
No | 49% | 39% | 9% | 2% |
Yes | 31% | 54% | 11% | 4% |
Don't Know | . | 60% | 40% | . |
Refused Answer | 52% | 48% | . | . |
GEOGRAPHIC AREA | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
South | 46% | 42% | 10% | 2% |
North | 49% | 40% | 8% | 3% |
Don't Know/Refused | 25% | 50% | 25% | . |
AGE GROUP | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
AGE GROUP II | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
SEX | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
VOTING METHOD | YES | NO | Don't Know | Refused Answer |
18–24 | 59% | 41% | . | . |
25–34 | 65% | 29% | 6% | . |
35–44 | 52% | 28% | 11% | 9% |
45–59 | 55% | 37% | 7% | 2% |
60+ | 31% | 54% | 13% | 2% |
18–60 | 56% | 33% | 7% | 3% |
61+ | 31% | 54% | 13% | 2% |
Female | 44% | 41% | 13% | 2% |
Male | 51% | 40% | 5% | 3% |
Plan to Vote | 47% | 41% | 9% | 3% |
Absentee Ballot | . | 100% | . | . |
Don't Know | 45% | 42% | 13% | . |
Refused Answer | 100% | . | . | . |
About the Poll
The telephone survey of 850 likely Florida voters was conducted Oct. 24–28 for News 13, Bay News 9 and the Tampa Bay Times by the University of Florida's Bob Graham Center for Public Service and Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
The poll, which included respondents using land lines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Results were weighted by age, party registration and media market, thus allowing the results to mirror the distribution in the Florida Voter File.
NOTE: Figures may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.