This morning, NOAA released its prediction for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. NOAA predicts a 70 percent chance there will be between six to 11 named storms.
Basically, NOAA is suggesting a below-average hurricane season. It seems evident, and has for the last few months, that the upcoming season will be below average from a number of storms standpoint. El Nino is developing and the chance of a stronger event seems likely. That means that the jet stream will be more active from the subtropical Pacific Ocean.
Stronger winds aloft in the jet stream are a detriment to the development of tropical storms and hurricanes. Even though each year we pay attention to these preseason predictions, it is important to not put too much weight into their importance.
Like I mentioned several weeks ago after the release of the Colorado State preseason forecast, all it takes is one storm. So you could easily have a lower than average season with a monster hurricane.
Take 1992 for example. By all accounts, 1992 was a meteorologically quiet hurricane season. Yet, Category 5 Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida. In contrast, there have been many times (several in the last 15 years) of overactive hurricane seasons with little impact on land in the United States. In fact, the last time a hurricane even hit Florida was Wilma in October 2005. That was also the last major hurricane to directly hit the United States.
With all of that said, it is ALWAYS important to be prepared during the season and beforehand. That is why we will be showing “Storm Threat 2015, Keeping You Safe.” Be sure to watch Bay News 9 on Friday at 7 p.m. If you can’t see it then, we will replay it on Saturday at 7 p.m. and Sunday at 4 p.m. Of course, there is always the DVR.