Tropical Storm Erika has certainly gotten everyone's attention.

With the official forecast looking like an arrow pointing right at Florida, people are concerned. It is very important to note that the forecast for Erika is highly uncertain for several reasons.

First, the short term forecast: Right now, Erika is undergoing some moderate shear from the west. This shear has been strong enough to blow the convection right off the top, exposing the center. This leaves Erika as a disorganized system.

The shear over the next 48 hours is supposed to strengthen. So, it is possible that Erika may have a very tough time even surviving that time period. In fact, there are computer models that diminish Erika to an open wave, which is the same fate that Hurricane Danny met due to the high shear.

Second, the longer term prospects for Erika's position and intensity are highly uncertain due to whether or not Erika survives the short term, if it does survive how much is left, and frankly, the various discrepancies amongst the computer models. A stronger Erika would likely be drawn poleward, which means it will move more northerly. That should keep it off the east coast of Florida and some models even keep it east of the Bahamas.

A weaker Erika (open wave or low end tropical storm) may have a chance to move into South Florida. That scenario could give us some slightly higher rain chances heading into Monday. This scenario would mean not much of a wind threat either.

Obviously, if Erika takes a path closer to the East Coast of Florida, there could be some minor to moderate wind issues late Sunday or early Monday.

Unfortunately for forecast confidence, the computer models have been all over the place.

We will have a much better idea after the next 24-48 hours after Erika has been through the strong wind shear.

We will keep you advised on Bay News 9 with our Tropical Updates at :19 and :49 after the hour.