ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Hurricane hunter aircraft flew through Michael tonight and found it slightly stronger, which isn’t a surprise.  We expect Michael to continue to intensify.  

However, there is still hope that it might not get to the level of the ‘official forecast’ because there will be some wind shear and drier air that Michael will have to contend with in a couple of days. Hopefully Michael will level out, but we’re not 100 percent sure.

Intensity forecasting is the hardest part of tropical forecasting.  We’ve come a long way with track forecasting, but intensity forecasting is still very difficult.

…Storm Surge Warning for the coast of Citrus, Hernando, Pasco Counties…

…Tropical Storm Warning for Citrus County…

…Tropical Storm Watch for Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee Counties…

Main takeaway points from the latest advisory:

  • Michael is staying west of Tampa Bay, so we won’t get the direct major impacts.
  • However, it will be close enough to get some indirect impacts, such as higher tides, gusty intermittent rain squalls, and some possible storm surge in Hernando and Citrus counties.
  • If Michael does become a major hurricane, it could cause a lot of damage to the panhandle areas between Panama City and Apalachicola, which is where the likely landfall will be.
  • This storm is moving at a good pace, so it will NOT be like Florence that just sat for days over the Carolinas and produced flooding rains.  But, on the flip side, because it is moving at a faster speed it will spread strong winds farther inland and there could be power outages deep into the panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southern Georgia.

Gov. Rick Scott has issued a State of Emergency that includes some Bay area counties. They are Pasco, Hernando, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee.