What really is Punxsutawney Phil? Is he a prognosticator? A prophet? Just a rodent? No matter what you may consider him, you can’t deny that every year you ask the same question–did he see his shadow?
But is Phil really all that? Is he so accurate that he can predict seasonal changes weeks before meteorologists across the world can? Or is Phil just another fraud, basking in the limelight that his one day in February brings each year?
He’s the most known rodent in the world. Since 1887, Punxsutawney Phil has had a yearly ritual where he emerges from his burrow at Gobblers Knob in Pennsylvania, with the help of his carriers, to bring his prognostication to his followers worldwide.
Will it be an early spring or six more weeks of winter?
His prediction, if you want to call it that, along with his many rodent cousins across the county, hinges on one basic principle.
Has Phil seen his shadow? If he does, Phil returns to his burrow knowing six more weeks of winter lie ahead. But if he doesn’t, Phil proclaims an early spring is on the way for the nation.
After emerging from his burrow and noting his surroundings, Phil will speak his prediction to the president of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club in “Groundhogese,” a language that can only be understood by the president of the club.
It is the president’s duty to than translate that prediction into English for the crowd to hear each February.
But the big question: Is Phil as accurate as he claims he is?
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Polling and statistics website FiveThirtyEight went through the data and determined that Phil is only correct around 36% of the time, nationally. In meteorological standards, that’s downright abysmal.
During their research, they defined an early spring as having an above average monthly high temperature for any month during February or March. If the average monthly high was at or below the average for those months, the season was classified as a continued long winter.
It's worth noting that NOAA uses the same interpretation for their evaluation, as well.
But while Phil’s accuracy may be shot nationally, he does a better job of predicting the season when the country is broken down by regions.
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The southern and southwestern United States are by far Phil’s favorite locations to prognosticate for with an accuracy rating of 50% since 1994.
But his prediction suffered in regions of the United States that see more varied weather during this time of the year.
Particularly, any location that suffers from winter storms or cold air outbreaks like the northeast, northwest and southeast. His success rate in these regions fell to an awful 39% since 1994.
But for many across the nation, Groundhog Day isn’t about accuracy. It’s about tradition and the excitement that it can bring to their own area year after year.
Outside of Pennsylvania, cities across the country have adopted similar rituals. Alongside Punxsutawney Phil, we have General Beauregard Lee in Georgia, Jimmy the Groundhog in Wisconsin, Buckeye Chuck in Ohio and Prairie Dog Pete in Texas, among others.
Even a bullfrog gets in on the action by croaking his predictions across the Pacific Northwest.
And to be fair to Phil, his many friends also struggle with accuracy. FiveThirtyEight found General Beauregard Lee, who is largely considered the “Punxsutawney Phil of the South,” is the nation’s most accurate rodent, holding a 63% accuracy rating nationally. That accuracy improves regionally to as high as 80% in parts of the country.
At the end of the day, Groundhog Day isn’t about an accurate forecast for the months ahead. It’s about having fun during a time of the year many don’t look forward to.
As a past president of the Groundhog Club once put it, “there are a lot of serious things happening around the world, and Groundhog Day is not one of them.”
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