It used to be a long shot, but now that the Mega Millions jackpot has soared to $636 million ahead of Tuesday night's drawing, it's insanely more unlikely than a long shot.
The beefy payout likely has a Pavlovian effect on regular lottery players, but anyone with a modicum of math proficiency knows he might as well set fire to that $1 bill as spend it on a ticket.
Your odds of getting all six numbers correct for the second-largest Mega Millions jackpot are about 1 in 259 million, according to the lottery company. You have more than 1,000 times better chance of an asteroid or comet killing you -- and that's using the long odds, according to Tulane University.
Which is to say, astronomical.
It's worth mentioning that you have a one-in-15 chance of winning something, even if it's just getting your dollar back, while the odds of winning the second-place $1 million prize -- that is, matching five balls, but not the Mega Ball -- are about 1 in 18.5 million.
Those numbers are hard for the average person to fathom, so maybe it's easier if we provide you a list of things that are way more likely than collecting a Mega Millions jackpot:
1. Dying from being struck by lightning
Odds: 1 in 3 million
Source: Harvard School of Public Health
The chances of being hit by lightning at all over an 80-year lifetime are 1 in 10,000, according to the National Weather Service.
2. Drowning — or other beach-related fatalities
Odds: 1 in 2 million
Source: Florida Museum of Natural History, based on U.S. beach injury statistics in 2000
3. Being attacked by a shark
Odds: 1 in 11.5 million
Source: Florida Museum of Natural History
4. Dying from a bee sting
Odds: 1 in 6.1 million
Source: Harvard School of Public Health
5. Dying in a plane crash
Odds: 1 in 11 million
Source: PBS' "Nova," based on data from the U.S. Department of Transportation
6. Becoming president of the United States
Odds: 1 in 10 million
Source: International Business Times
7. Having conjoined twins
Odds: 1 in 200,000
Source: University of Maryland Medical Center
8. Being crushed and killed by a vending machine
Odds: 1 in 112 million
Source: Discovery News
9. Being killed using a right-handed product, if you're left-handed
Odds: 1 in 7 million
Source: Gizmodo
10. Hitting a hole-in-one on two consecutive, par-3 holes
Odds: 1 in 156 million
Source: U.S. Hole in One, which insures golf prizes for holes in one
Also of note, the chances of an amateur golfer making a single hole-in-one on a par-3 hole is about 1 in 12,500.
11. Hitting a deer while driving in Hawaii
Odds: 1 in 6,267
Source: State Farm, from a 2011 study on collissions between vehicles and deer, said to be least likely in the state of Hawaii.