Republican Marco Rubio has a fight on his hands against Democrat Patrick Murphy in his bid to keep his U.S. Senate seat, an exclusive statewide News 13/Bay News 9 poll shows.
- Rubio, Murphy tied in US Senate race, exclusive poll reveals
- Rubio handily ahead in Aug. 30 GOP primary
- Voters largely undecided in Democratic primary
According to the results of a Florida Decides poll conducted June 25-27, Rubio and Murphy both would earn 43 percent of the vote, if the November general election for Senate were today.
Another 8 percent of those surveyed were undecided.
Rubio is far ahead of his Republican rivals in the Aug. 30 GOP primary, according to the Florida Decides poll. Sixty-three percent of those surveyed would vote for Rubio. Another 13 percent are undecided. His next closest rival, Manatee County homebuilder Carlos Beruff, would get 11 percent of the vote.
Last week, Rubio reversed a previous vow not to run for re-election. He suspended his presidential campaign the night of the Florida presidential primary in March. In May, several prominent Republicans encouraged the first-term senator to reconsider his decision, and two days before the filing deadline, he re-entered the Senate race.
On the Democratic side, about 35 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided, if the primary were held today. But Murphy is ahead of Alan Grayson, 30 percent to 21 percent, in that primary. Even though more than a third of Democrats said they don't know who they'll vote for, GOP candidates are focusing their attacks on Murphy. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid has endorsed the congressman, and Vice President Joe Biden stumped for Murphy during a visit to Orlando last month for an appearance at the Invictus Games.
Join us for more exclusive poll results Wednesday morning, starting at 5 a.m., and find out who Florida voters would choose for president if the election were held today.
Detailed poll results
Q: If the August 30 Republican primary for U.S. Senate were today, and Marco Rubio, Dwight Young, Carlos Beruff and Ernie Rivera were the Republican primary candidates, who would you vote for? (candidate names were rotated)
| All |
Gender | Age | Race | |||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Asian/ Other |
||
| Marco Rubio |
63% | 60% | 66% | 60% | 57% | 63% | 67% | 65% | ** | 39% |
| Dwight Young |
10% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 12% | 7% | 9% | ** | 29% |
| Carlos Beruff |
11% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 14% | 11% | ** | 13% |
| Ernie Rivera |
2% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | ** | 1% |
| Undecided |
13% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 22% | 11% | 10% | 13% | ** | 18% |
| Composition of likely GOP primary voters |
100% | 52% | 48% | 11% | 22% | 31% | 36% | 92% | 2% | 6% |
| Party Affiliation |
|||||||
| Strong Rep. |
Republican | Ind. lean Rep. |
Independent | Ind. lean Dem. |
Democrat |
Strong Dem. |
|
| Composition of likely/actual GOP primary voters |
46% | 34% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Marco Rubio |
67% | 70% | 47% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| Dwight Young |
8% | 8% | 19% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| Carlos Beruff |
12% | 9% | 11% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| Ernie Rivera |
1% | 2% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| Undecided |
11% | 11% | 18% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| Ideology | Tea Party | ||||||
| Very Conserv. | Conserv. | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib. | Yes | No | |
| Composition of likely/actual GOP primary voters |
34% | 39% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 24% | 67% |
| Marco Rubio | 71% | 65% | 52% | ** | ** | 65% | 65% |
| Dwight Young | 7% | 9% | 16% | ** | ** | 10% | 9% |
| Carlos Beruff | 12% | 13% | 8% | ** | ** | 16% | 10% |
| Ernie Rivera | 2% | 1% | 4% | ** | ** | 1% | 2% |
| Undecided | 9% | 12% | 20% | ** | ** | 8% | 14% |
| Education | Income | |||||
| High School | Some College | 4-yr College | < $40K | $40K - $80K | > $80K | |
| Composition of likely/actual GOP primary voters |
18% | 34% | 48% | 24% | 36% | 40% |
| Marco Rubio | 62% | 63% | 65% | 63% | 62% | 65% |
| Dwight Young |
12% | 12% | 8% | 14% | 9% | 9% |
| Carlos Beruff |
11% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 11% |
| Ernie Rivera |
2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Undecided | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 14% |
Surveyed: 555 likely August GOP primary voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 4.1%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.
Q: If the August 30 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate were today, and Alan Grayson, Patrick Murphy, Pam Keith, Rocky De La Fuente and Reginald Luster were were the Democratic primary candidates, who would you vote for? (candidate names were rotated)
| All | Gender |
Age |
Race |
|||||||
| Male |
Female |
18-34 |
35-49 |
50-64 |
65+ |
White |
Black |
Asian/ Other |
||
| Alan Grayson |
21% | 22% | 20% | 13% | 18% | 22% | 27% | 24% | 13% | 12% |
| Patrick Murphy |
30% | 32% | 28% | 22% | 19% | 34% | 37% | 32% | 21% | 40% |
| Pam Keith | 10% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 3% |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Reginald Luster | 3% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 7% |
| Undecided | 35% |
31% | 39% | 48% | 45% | 29% | 27% | 31% | 49% | 37% |
| Composition of likely/actual Dem. primary voters |
100% | 45% | 55% | 16% | 23% | 31% | 30% | 72% | 22% | 6% |
| Party Affiliation |
|||||||
| Strong Rep. |
Republican | Ind. lean Rep. |
Independent | Ind. lean Dem. |
Democrat |
Strong Dem. |
|
| Composition of likely/actual Dem. primary voters |
1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 14% | 37% | 40% |
| Alan Grayson |
** | ** | ** | ** | 29% | 14% | 23% |
| Patrick Murphy |
** | ** | ** | ** | 18% | 28% | 37% |
| Pam Keith | ** | ** | ** | ** | 15% | 7% | 9% |
| Rocky De La Fuente | ** | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Reginald Luster | ** | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 5% | 1% |
| Undecided |
** | ** | ** | ** | 36% | 43% | 28% |
| Ideology | Tea Party | ||||||
| Very Conserv. | Conserv. | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib. | Yes | No | |
| Composition of likely/actual Dem. primary voters |
8% | 9% | 34% | 27% | 18% | 6% | 89% |
| Alan Grayson |
19% | 17% | 13% | 30% | 25% | 19% |
22% |
| Patrick Murphy |
36% | 28% | 28% | 32% | 30% | 39% |
29% |
| Pam Keith | 11% | 7% | 15% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Reginald Luster | 6% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 2% |
| Undecided | 25% | 41% | 41% | 27% | 35% | 20% |
35% |
| Education | Income | |||||
| High School | Some College | 4-yr College | < $40K | $40K - $80K | > $80K | |
| Composition of likely/actual Dem. primary voters |
13% | 34% | 52% | 26% | 42% | 33% |
| Alan Grayson |
15% | 24% | 21% | 24% | 20% | 21% |
| Patrick Murphy |
41% | 23% | 31% | 29% | 25% | 36% |
| Pam Keith | 6% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 11% |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Reginald Luster | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Undecided | 28% | 38% | 36% | 35% | 40% | 29% |
Surveyed: 618 likely August Democratic primary voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 4.0%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.
Q: If the November election for U.S. senator from Florida were today, and Marco Rubio (R) and Patrick Murphy (D) were the candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?
| All | Gender |
Age |
Race |
|||||||
| Male |
Female |
18-34 |
35-49 |
50-64 |
65+ |
White |
Black |
Asian/ Other |
||
| Marco Rubio (R) |
43% |
46% |
40% |
39% |
42% |
42% |
47% |
48% |
16% |
37% |
| Patrick Murphy (D) |
43% |
43% |
42% |
41% |
42% |
44% |
43% |
39% |
67% |
41% |
| Other | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 15% |
| Undecided | 8% |
4% |
11% |
12% |
9% |
8% |
4% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
100% |
48% |
52% |
15% |
25% |
30% |
30% |
80% |
13% |
7% |
| Party Affiliation |
|||||||
| Strong Rep. |
Republican | Ind. lean Rep. |
Independent | Ind. lean Dem. |
Democrat |
Strong Dem. |
|
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
18% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 19% | 17% |
| Marco Rubio (R) |
84% |
84% |
66% |
36% |
15% |
14% |
6% |
| Patrick Murphy (D) |
6% |
7% |
15% |
34% |
70% |
71% |
87% |
| Other | 6% | 2% | 12% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 3% |
| Undecided |
4% |
7% |
6% |
14% |
7% |
11% |
4% |
| Ideology | Tea Party | ||||||
| Very Conserv. | Conserv. | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib. | Yes | No | |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
16% | 23% | 31% | 16% | 9% | 11% | 80% |
| Marco Rubio (R) |
75% |
73% |
33% |
13% |
6% |
74% |
38% |
| Patrick Murphy (D) |
15% |
14% |
49% |
76% |
81% |
19% |
48% |
| Other | 7% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% |
| Undecided | 2% |
6% |
10% |
6% |
8% |
2% |
8% |
| Abortion | Gun owner |
|||||
| Pro-life |
Pro-choice |
Yes | No |
|||
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
38% | 57% | 40% | 54% | ||
| Marco Rubio (R) |
67% |
27% |
56% |
31% |
||
| Patrick Murphy (D) |
21% |
59% |
32% |
54% |
||
| Other | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | ||
| Undecided | 6% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
||
| Education | Income | |||||
| High School | Some College | 4-yr College | < $40K | $40K - $80K | > $80K | |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
16% | 33% | 51% | 27% | 38% | 35% |
| Marco Rubio (R) |
45% |
46% |
40% |
40% |
43% |
45% |
| Patrick Murphy (D) |
36% |
40% |
47% |
40% |
43% |
45% |
| Other | 10% | 8% | 5% | 10% | 6% | 4% |
| Undecided | 10% |
6% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
6% |
Surveyed: 1,678 likely November voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 2.4%
This Florida Decides Exclusive Statewide Poll was conducted by SurveyUSA from June 25-27. Research began as soon as names on the primary ballots were finalized June 24. Most interviews were completed after the results of the British vote to leave the European Union were announced. Of the 2,000 adults interviewed, 1,873 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 555 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible and likely to vote in the August 30 Democratic primary, and 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible and likely to vote in the August 30 Republican primary. Only voters eligible and likely to vote in each primary were asked the Senate primary horse-race questions. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (66 percent of likely November voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (34 percent of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.