Florida Democrats are preparing to capitalize on the arrival of refugees from storm-battered Puerto Rico with a voter registration effort that could yield the party a significant - and unexpected - advantage in next year's statewide elections.
- State's Puerto Rican electorate reliably Democratic
- As many as half a million PR residents expected to emigrate to mainland
- GOP could also make gains among Puerto Ricans arriving
The state's exploding Puerto Rican electorate, clustered primarily in Central Florida, has proved reliably Democratic over the past decade. If, as Puerto Rico's commissioner in Congress has suggested, as many as half a million of the island's residents emigrate to the mainland as a result of Hurricane Maria's impacts, tens of thousands could settle in Florida and become eligible voters.
The potential for such an assist isn't lost on Sen. Bill Nelson, a three-term Democrat contemplating what could be a competitive reelection contest next year should Gov. Rick Scott decide to mount a deep-pocketed challenge.
At a San Juan press conference over the weekend, Nelson suggested that registering newly-arrived Puerto Ricans will be one of his campaign's top priorities.
"If they will register to vote, which I'm certainly going to encourage, because I can tell you among the Puerto Rican community in the greater Orlando area, they have been very embracing of my public service," Nelson said. "The question is how many will want to register, and how many will want to return."
Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who ran the 2008 Obama campaign's successful Florida operation, estimates between 30,000 and 40,000 Puerto Rican refugees could register to vote as Florida Democrats. In a state where presidential and gubernatorial contests have lately been decided by one percentage point or less, such a gain could give Democrats the extra firepower they might need to win the Senate race and recapture the Governor's Mansion.
"I don't think the Puerto Rican migration is going to change the game itself, but I certainly think in an election that could be decided by 50,000 to 100,000 votes, every single vote's going to matter and getting those voters registered and turning out to vote is a huge part of winning," Schale said.
But, he cautions, Republicans should be expected to expand their universe of support, too. While it could be difficult for the GOP to pick up base voters on par with the number of Puerto Rican Democrats that could join the electorate, any gains will effectively dilute the impact of the surge.