WASHINGTON — Judge Susan Crawford is savoring her 10-point victory Tuesday night over conservative-backed Judge Brad Schimel in the race for a pivotal seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court. The election drew national attention, seen as a referendum on both President Donald Trump, who endorsed Schimel, and on Trump’s ally, billionaire Elon Musk, who spent about $25 million to help Schimel’s candidacy.
“I never could have imagined that I’d be taking on the richest man in the world,” Crawford said Tuesday of Musk.
Political analysts said Crawford’s victory, combined with the strong showing by Democrats, who lost two special elections for Congress in solidly-red Florida districts, suggest the political winds may be shifting against the president, the GOP, and Musk, the president’s point-man in slashing government spending and staffing.
I think people have real concerns about the degree to which President Trump has just allowed somebody without a formal portfolio to make haphazard decisions that don't seem to have much rhyme or reason“I think people have real concerns about the degree to which President Trump has just allowed somebody without a formal portfolio to make haphazard decisions that don't seem to have much rhyme or reason,” said Kathleen Dolan, a distinguished professor of political science at UW-Milwaukee. “So I think it's probably not a great thing to be tied to Elon Musk right now, because he's not particularly popular.”
Democrats argued Tuesday results give them momentum heading into next year’s midterms, when control of the U.S. Senate and especially the U.S. House will be at stake. That could signal a close race in Wisconsin’s third congressional district, where incumbent Congressman Derrick Van Orden, R-Prairie du Chien, faces a rematch against Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who came within 11,000 votes of beating him in November.
“Van Orden ran behind the president by several points in his own district in 2024, and the political environment is probably not going to be as favorable in 2026 as it was in 2024. Doesn't necessarily mean that a Supreme Court race is predictive,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Back in 2023, the Democratic-aligned candidate [Janet Protasiewicz] won by a roughly similar margin. That didn't have any predictive value for the presidential race. I think it's also fair to say that we're not going to have as high a turnout in the 2026 midterm as you're going to have in a presidential year.”
Tuesday’s state Supreme Court race was the most expensive state judicial election in history and it saw a record turnout of more than 50% of eligible voters. Ideological control of the court was at stake, with the court poised to take up several high-profile issues, including abortion rights and congressional district boundaries.
“There is an appeal to voters on both sides that the issues matter in this election,” Dolan said, “and so, I think that motivated people.”
Republicans won’t have a chance to flip a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court until 2028, unless a liberal justice vacates their seat before then. And with terms ending for two conservative justices in the next two years, liberals could actually increase their majority in the near future.
