Republican Donald Trump holds a lead in the contest for Florida’s electoral votes, but Democrat Kamala Harris is ahead among voters whose ballots are already in.

That’s according to a new survey by St. Pete Polls, conducted for Florida Politics. The poll found more than 50% of likely voters in the Sunshine State intend to back Trump for President for a third consecutive time. Meanwhile, under 45% support Harris. Nearly 3% will vote for another candidate.

Pollsters report a 2.8-percentage-point margin of error. The results suggest why the onetime battleground has increasingly been viewed as a Republican-leaning state in this year’s presidential race.

The poll of 1,227 likely Florida voters was conducted from Oct. 23 through 25. Results were weighted to reflect an electorate that’s 41% Republican, 34% Democrat and 25% other voters.

Conducted roughly halfway through early voting in most parts of the state, about half the respondents in the poll had already cast their ballots either through early voting or by mail.

Of note, Harris holds a lead among those who already cast their votes. Among the half of voters whose decision was made, more than 49% support the Democrat, while 48% back Trump.

Importantly, Democrats in the last two election cycles in Florida have voted early in greater numbers than Republicans, who were more likely to wait until Election Day to cast ballots in person.

The poll shows Trump with a lead among women, despite the prospect of Harris becoming the nation’s first woman President. About 49% of women in the state surveyed say they will back Trump while under 47% will back the Democrat instead. Among men, Trump’s lead is a more sizable, at 52% to 42%.

Harris would also be the first Black woman elected President, and 83% of Black voters intend to support Harris compared to 14% who will back Trump. But that also indicates inroads for Republicans. According to the Pew Research Center, about 92% of Black voters in 2020 backed Democrat Joe Biden, who had Harris as his running mate, over Trump.

Trump also leads among Hispanic voters 51% to 42%, according to the poll.

While more than half of voters age 29 and younger support Harris, Trump leads among all other age demographics according to the poll.

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