The Bills are back on the primetime stage just six days after slicing and dicing up the 49ers on Monday Night Football.
Now they begin the final quarter of this 2020 regular season against one of the best teams in the NFL, the Steelers.
This will be the second time the Bills will host a team in primetime coming off their first loss of the season. The other was against the Chiefs, a Monday night game the Bills came up just short in at the end.
A win over Pittsburgh would push the Bills to 10-3, their best start since 1991.
Let's dive into what's on tap tonight.
Another Test For Allen
Josh Allen is the reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week after cooking the San Francisco defense for 375 yards and 4 touchdowns at an 80% completion clip. The numbers themselves certainly are impressive, but they are elevated even more when adding that the 49ers pass defense came into the game ranked 4th in the NFL in allowing just 206.5 passing yards per game. Only two QBs had thrown for over 300 yards against them, with that unit holding the opposing QB under 200 yards passing in 7 of their 11 games.
Allen will face an even better defense tonight. The Steelers are 2nd in the league against the pass, allowing 199.8 yards per game. They have not allowed an opposing QB to throw for over 300 yards. Alex Smith is the closest to eclipse that mark, throwing for 296 in Washington's upset win last week.
But Allen is having an MVP-caliber season, one where he is one of five QBs in the NFL to rank top ten in passing yards, TDs, completion percentage, and QB rating. The others are Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson.
The Bills are at their best when they let Allen lead the offensive ship and shoulder the load. That is what those other four QBs do week in and week out, regardless of the defense across from them.
When you talk about defining moments in a season, I believe this could be it for Allen. It won't be easy, but he already carved up a top-tier defense this week. He has shown this season that there is no reason to believe he can't... and won't... do it again.
What a Rush
One thing the Bills will have to do in order for Allen to cook again is protect him up front. The Steelers pass rush is the best in the NFL with 44 sacks. They have 2 or more sacks in all 12 games this season, 4+ in 6 of the 12.
That attack is led by T.J. Watt. He entered the week leading the NFL with 12 sacks (Aaron Donald has since passed him at 12.5 after playing Thursday night). Watt has recorded at least half a sack in 9 of the Steelers 12 games.
He holds the league lead with 21 tackles for a loss. Throw in there 37 QB hits and you get the idea that Watt is a major problem for the Bills.
According to PFF, Watt has the highest win percentage of anyone in the NFL at 24.7%. The next three behind him are Joey Bosa (24.6%), Aaron Donald (23.3%), and Chris Jones (22.5%).
The Bills have already faced the other three in that group, with Donald (2 sacks, 3 TFL, 3 QB hits, FF, FR) and Bosa (3 sacks, 6 TFL, 5 QB hits, FR) really wreaking havoc.
Expect help for the offensive line from the tight ends and running backs, with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss being solid in pass protection maybe more important than what they do running the ball.
What does help the Bills is that the Steelers are a bit undermanned, with Bud Dupree and Devin Bush on IR.
Big Ben Attack
The days of the Steelers playing smash mouth football with the running game are over.
Ben Roethlisberger leads the NFL in attempts with 484. That is an average of over 40 pass attempts per game. Roetherlisberger has thrown it 40+ times in seven of the Steelers 12 games, including their last five. He has even taken things up a notch with 50+ pass attempts the last two games.
While Roethlisberger also leads the NFL with 324 completions, he is just 12th in the league in passing yards at 3,105, an average of 258.75 per game.
That shows you that Pittsburgh uses the passing game as a form of a running attack, not necessarily looking to drive it down the field all the time.
The Bills defense is going to be tested throughout regardless of success they may find early.
Stone Hands Steelers
The Steelers receiving core is solid, although the distribution may surprise you.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is likely the most known commodity, but he has yet to produce a 100 yard receiving game this season despite leading the team with 73 catches.
Diontae Johnson leads Pittsburgh in receiving yards with 654. What really stood out to me is the volume of targets he has seen, having the ball thrown to him 10+ times in 8 of the Steelers 12 games, including five-straight.
Chase Claypool has had a great rookie season with 47 receptions for 649 yards and a team-high 8 TDs, 3 of which came in one game.
Eric Ebron is also in the mix, with the tight end bringing in 49 catches for 481 yards and 4 TDs.
This entire groups problem has been drops. They have 5 or more in back-to-back games, 7 in the loss to Washington.
They have 33 drops as a team. Johnson leads the way with 10, notching a drop on 9.4% of his targets. Ebron is next with 7 and a drop percentage of 9%.
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has been quite open and honest about the problem. We will see if playing time for certain guys wavers tonight, especially if the problems continue.
Injury Report
PITTSBURGH
OUT: CB Joe Haden (concussion), LB Robert Spillane (knee)
BILLS
OUT: S Jaquan Johnson (ankle)
SPECTRUM NEWS BLITZ - WEEK 14
**Join Kevin Caroll and myself every Thursday for our weekly Facebook Live where we discuss the Bills upcoming game. That's Thursday at 6:30pm on the Spectrum News Facebook page.**
Bills and Steelers set to kick things off on Sunday Night Football from Bills Stadium at 8:20pm.