News out this week from NOAA is for a very high chance to see an average or below average hurricane season. This follows a similar prediction last week from the folks at Colorado State University. So, what does this all mean and why is it important?

Well, it means that based on a range of factors around the globe, that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will end up near or below average when it comes to the number of named storms. This is taking into account that four named storms have already occurred. (Although two of them probably shouldn't have been named - that is a topic for another discussion.)

With a predicted strengthening El Nino in the tropical Pacific and cooler than average Atlantic Ocean water temperatures, the expectation of tropical development during the peak and end of the season is expected to be lower than normal. An El Nino leads to stronger winds at the jet stream level coming into the Tropical Atlantic. This leads to higher wind shear in the Atlantic basin, which is an inhibiting factor for tropical development. Of course, cooler than average Atlantic water temperatures will also lead to the potential for fewer storms.

So, why is this important? Well...I don't really believe that it is very helpful to the general public. I don't feel that hurricane season forecasts provide much use for people that live in the tropics. Yes, when a season has a lower than normal number of storms, the chances of an individual spot seeing tropical weather goes down. But, in an average season, the actual chances are relatively low anyway. But, the consequences are potentially great and that is why we prepare anyway.

I fear that when a seasonal forecast like this comes out, that people let their guard down. It is important when living in the tropics, which we do here in Florida, to always be prepared.

There have been inactive seasons in the past that produced really bad storms. 1992 comes to mind. Tell people in Homestead that 1992 was a VERY inactive year and they won't like that very much. In case you don't remember, 1992 produced category 5 hurricane Andrew and very little else that season.

So, always take seasonal forecasts as simply just information and always be prepared, and always pay attention to the short term forecasts.