PINELLAS COUNTY, Fla — An analysis from the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council projects Florida and the Tampa Bay Area could take a harder economic hit than other states and communities.
- Projection based on current data; estimates may change in coming months
- USF also studying economic impact of pandemic to the region
- More coronavirus stories
A key takeaway from what the TBRPC found after reviewing data reads "A 10 percent decline in Gross National Product will lead to approximately 11 percent losses in Gross State Product and Gross Regional Product for Florida and the Tampa Bay Area, respectively.”
“It basically means the economic footprint of the country shrinks by 10 percent in terms of the value of goods and services that we make in the U.S. It will be a little bit larger in Florida, maybe about 11 percent, maybe a bit more,” said Randy Deshazo, the Director of Planning and Research at the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council.
He explains this is a projection based on the data they have now and estimates can change in the coming weeks and months. The analysis also says the Tampa Bay Area may suffer relatively more than Florida as a whole.
“It's because we’re so dependent not just on tourism but all the industries that support tourism," said Deshazo. "I don’t mean just restaurants. I mean the airport and port. All of these things support jobs that are supportive of tourism directly but they actually support everybody’s activities, business, travel, transportation, fuel and food. All of these things, one way or another, interact with the gateways that go through the region.”
Deshazo says two key aspects to Florida’s economy include tourism and sales tax. Both have been greatly impacted by this pandemic.
“We don’t have a personal income tax and that means we’re especially dependent upon visitors to keep the state’s wheels going,” said Deshazo. He went on to say, “The state is really dependent on sales tax as a source of revenue and so anything that brings tourism down is going to hurt our bottom line up in Tallahassee.”
Researching the economic impact from this pandemic is also a focus at USF. Analysts within the Center of Analytics and Creativity in the Muma College of Business are working with the Tampa Bay Partnership to collect data. They’re focusing on internet searches.
Balaki Padmanabhan, the Director of USF’s Center for Analytics, says they’re monitoring what people are searching on Google to analyze what’s happening in our economy.
“It’s hard to predict long term. Searches don’t tell us in the long term what will happen. But in the short term, it’s 100 percent shown us that it’s very serious. So we look to monitor this to see when we’re likely to see recovery,” said Padmanabhan.
He says they’re watching closely for searches relating to tourism, visiting restaurants and booking hotels. Those are some key areas that could show a move toward the start of rebuilding our economy.