We're at the time of year where cold fronts attempt to make their way into the southern United States, and very few are successful.

What You Need To Know

  • The first few colds fronts lower the humidity, not so much temperature

  • Cold fronts don't usually arrive until mid-October

  • Large temperature swings happen when the air mass is dry

Cold fronts this time of year tend to be very weak and do nothing more than lower the dew points. Even though it doesn't sound like much, a slight drop in the dew points can be very noticeable around here, especially as we come out of the height of the summer season.

However, the first few fronts do not typically cool us down by much. 

It isn't until about mid-October when cold fronts have more of a bite to them. We start seeing fronts surviving the trip south of Tampa Bay. When this happens, not only do we see a drop in dew points, but our temperatures also begin to cool. 

Our average high temperature in mid-October is around 85 degrees. The average high temperature drops to about 80 degrees by November 1.

The truth is, Tampa doesn't get cold very often but it's not uncommon for cold fronts to give us a little bite in the air from time to time. We have seen this in the past many times. When the humidity drops, we can get large temperature swings, and that doesn't usually start happening until mid-to-late October. 

Let's look at August, for instance. It is humid every day, and cold fronts just don't make it to Tampa Bay.

Since records began in 1890, the record low in August stands at 66 degrees, set in 1911. The record low for September stands at 54 degrees from 1897.

The bottom line, it just doesn't get all that cold. Then October rolls around. 

Once the cold fronts start rolling through, our air mass dries out, and this can lead to larger swings in our temperatures. The record low in Tampa during October stands at 40 degrees, set in 1964.

The all-time record low for Tampa took place in December 1962, when the temperature dropped to a frigid 18 degrees. 

So the bottom line is Tampa doesn't usually see a big drop in temperatures until mid-to-late October.

Just remember, these early season fronts are known more for knocking the humidity down rather than cooling us off. Those kind of cold fronts will come later.