TAMPA, FL — A tropical storm will probably develop by Tuesday in the Western Caribbean, then it will likely strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday.

A hurricane will likely track north and make landfall on Thursday somewhere between the Nature Coast and Panama City.

In terms of intensity, a category 2 or 3 would be its most likely maximum strength at landfall. 

With such a range of possible landfall locations, this could lead to a number of different outcomes for the Tampa Bay region.

No matter the outcome, the timing of impacts for the Tampa Bay area look to start late Wednesday night and end Thursday night. 

The reason for such high uncertainty lies in its lack of development.

While it has been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, it still does not have an organized center.

It is much more difficult to forecast a storm that hasn't developed, than one that has.

The models are just guessing where an approximate center of the storm is now and going from there.

If the model is wrong about where the center is now, it most certainly will be wrong about where it will be on Thursday.

However, we can still outline possible scenarios that could pan out on Thursday. 

Best-case scenario for the Tampa Bay area

A best-case scenario for the Tampa Bay and Nature Coast regions will be a track up the western side of the current forecast cone.

The area will still see bands of heavy rain starting Wednesday, then becoming more consistent on Thursday near the coast.

In this scenario, landfall would be in the Panhandle, around Apalachicola or west, with the center passing over 100 miles west of Tampa Bay.

Some coastal flooding would occur, but it would be minor, and only in the most flood-prone areas.

Wind gusts to 40 mph would be possible near the coast and power outages would be isolated.

The main impacts in the scenario would be minor coastal flooding and nuisance wind gusts.

Inland flooding would not be a huge concern, and rainfall amounts would be around 1 to 3 inches. 

Worst-case scenario for the Tampa Bay area

The worst-case scenario for the area would certainly be a track up the eastern side of the current forecast cone.

This would mean a landfall just to the north of Tampa Bay.

While this is not a likely scenario, it is within the realm of possibility.

The biggest impact would be storm surge in this case.

While it would be hard to put an exact value to it at this point, it certainly would be a higher surge than anything seen in the area in many decades.

Hurricane-force winds would be likely in this scenario with many power outages along with damage to property.

Rainfall would still be on the low end for a hurricane, as it would be a fast moving storm. 

Rainfall totals would be around 3 to 6 inches. 

Somewhere in the middle

A solution somewhere in the middle appears the most likely for now.

This would mean a landfall in the Big Bend region.

While we certainly would not get the brunt of the impacts around Tampa Bay, we would still get some sizable ones.

A scenario like this could be similar to what transpired with Idalia last year.

Several feet of storm surge would be possible around the Tampa Bay area with the biggest surge impacts in our region on the Nature Coast.

In this scenario, hurricane-force winds would likely stay just west of us, but gusts over 50 mph would still be possible.

Scattered power outages would be possible, along with some minor wind damage to property. 

Rainfall would be around 2 to 4 inches, so the inland flood risk would be low. 

Stay updated as the track will become more certain during the day on Tuesday and impacts will become more clear.

For now, these are just possible scenarios, not definitive ones. 

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