TAMPA, Fla. — Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Gulf of Mexico with moisture spreading over Florida from Sunday into next week. There is a high chance again of tropical development of a low pressure area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

A cold front will be moving southward toward the northern Gulf coast at about the same time. If the low forming can remain separated from the front, it could develop into a tropical or subtropical storm and move to the west-coast of Florida Tuesday or Wednesday. Computer models have been going back and forth on development, but as of this Friday afternoon, more models are showing a tropical system.

Regardless of development, heavy rain will be a threat around the Florida Peninsula from Sunday into Wednesday. Models keep shifting the heavy rain threat area from along the I-4 corridor to south of it and over more of South Florida. The location of the swath of heavy rain should become more evident toward the end of the weekend into next week. With the ground saturated from a rainy summer, additional downpours would quickly cause flooding concerns.

With clean-up efforts and debris removal still very much underway along our coast, the impacts of heavy rain, wind, and storm surge would be higher. We will continue to closely monitor the latest trends throughout the weekend and update you on any changes and keep checking in for any watches or warnings.

GFS/EURO 7-Day Rainfall Models